NFL WEEK 3 ML PICKS

Okay so forget what I said about week 1 being weird and getting back on track for week 2. lol I got decimated by the underdogs last week and posted a 6-10 record which is my worst of all time. In spite of that I was up in my bets so at least there’s that. My season win total is now 16-16. 50% is not what I wanted and week 3 is filled with tough matchups but let’s get at it!

NY Jets (2-1) vs NE Patriots (1-2)

This game already happened Thursday as I’m posting Saturday. I gave my pick on @bigmouthsmallwords on instagram and Facebook so if you don’t follow you should. I took the Jets in a runaway and won all my bets so that couldn’t have gone better! Don’t believe me? Here’s the slips!

My pick - NY Jets

Giants (0-2) vs Browns (1-1)

I see one team trending up and the other trending down. The Browns are far from perfect but the offense has improved and they are starting to move the ball. The Giants don’t do anything well at the moment and Daniel Jones looks like a complete bust. The Browns are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 at home. I think the Browns defense gets Jones to make mistakes and the Browns win by a touchdown or more.

My pick - The Browns

Packers (1-1) vs Titans (0-2)

The Packers somehow won last week against the Colts just running the ball and throwing passes behind the line of scrimmage. The Titans more specifically Will Levis continues to turn the ball over in crucial moments. The Titans defense hasn’t created a turnover this season. I think all of that changes this week. At home against a one trick pony offense of the Packers I can see the Titans keeping it close and winning with the run game and Tony Pollard. If Love plays that could change how I feel. But assuming he’s not I’m taking the Titans.

My pick - The Titans

Bears (1-1) vs The Colts (0-2)

This game is such a toss up. These are 2 bad teams throwing punches until it’s over. It will be close and will most likely be a mistake late that does one of these teams in. The Bears should be able to get their running game going against a Colts defense that’s allowed the most rushing yards this year. Richardson is hard to trust but his one thing he does well is go deep and the Bears defense has allowed a league high of 12 explosive pass completions in two weeks. I’d usually take the 0-2 team at home but I really still can’t believe the Colts couldn’t beat a Packers team lead my Malik Willis. So I’m taking the Bears and their run game to get the job done.

My pick - The Bears

Texans (2-0) vs Vikings (2-0)

I saw the Texans record coming but I didn’t expect the Vikings to be in this position. Sam Darnold has shown up and shown out passing for 2 touchdowns in each of his first 2 games this year. The Vikings defense loves to bring pressure as they have the sixth highest blitz rate in the league. Stroud won’t mind that one bit as his passer rating against the blitz this year is 117. No doubt this game will be competitive but I think Diggs has his best game against a former team. I think Stroud makes less mistakes and the Texans train keeps rolling.

My pick - The Texans

Eagles (1-1) vs Saints (2-0)

This game feels like such a trap. Everything in me is telling that the Eagles win this game. But my brain tells me certain stats I can’t ignore. The Eagles defense is among the worst in the league in multiple categories. Last in yards per rush, 31st in yards per play allowed and most importantly 30th in pressure percentage. If they can’t get pressure on Carr they can’t win this game. I think Hurts will scramble and make plays but in the end without AJ Brown that offense isn’t the same. I’ll take the home team in this one.

My pick - The Saints

Chargers (2-0) vs Steelers (2-0)

The Chargers advantage has been that they have the league leading rusher in JK Dobbins. Problem is he won’t be able to do much against the Steelers front or their defense as a whole. Justin Herbert is looking like he will play but he will be hurt if he does which I don’t love. The Chargers defense has allowed the lowest amount of points in the league and could force Fields into some mistakes. In the end I’m going to take the home team and that Steelers defense to get the job done. Only way I see the Chargers winning is if Fields throws too many interceptions.

My pick - The Steelers

Broncos (0-2) vs Buccaneers (2-0)

The Buccaneers are by far the better team here in this matchup. But the Buccaneers defense is without a lot of their stars. Vita Vea, Antoine Winfield jr and Calijah Kancey. That being said the Buccaneers offense should be able to put up plenty at home. Bo Nix has 88 dropbacks which is third highest in the league and for a rookie is a recipe for disaster. Give me the home team here.

My pick - The Buccaneers

Panthers (0-2) vs The Raiders (1-1)

The Panthers are as down as you can be. They benched Young for Dalton, they have only scored one touchdown all season and their defense has given up 73 points already this year. A lot of experts are picking the Panthers here. Saying Dalton will have a decent game and the Raiders are in a trap game at home coming off the high of beating the Ravens last week. Here’s my problem with that logic. Take Dalton out of it. Even if he goes off against the Raiders. How do the Panthers stop the run? How do the Panthers stop Bowers, Meyers and Adam’s? The answer is that they don’t. Give me the Raiders at home.

My pick - The Raiders

Dolphins (1-1) vs Seahawks (2-0)

With Tua being out this game seems to be handed to Seattle. The Dolphins have a ton of weapons but with Skylar Thompson at the helm they can only do so much. Achane will get plenty of carries. I’m sure Miami will score a few times. But The Seahawks have enough weapons to take this game. I see the Seahawks defense scoring a td in this one too. Give me Seattle ML AND THE SPREAD!

My pick - Seahawks

Ravens (0-2) vs Cowboys (1-1)

This is a classic Cowboys bounce back game. The one thing I did right last week was predict that the Cowboys wouldn’t show up for their first home game. The Cowboys are 7-1 against the spread (ATS) as a dog at home. Both teams will score and I predict Henry to rush for over 100 yards but in the end Dallas makes enough plays to get it done.

My pick - The Cowboys

49ers (1-1) vs The Rams (0-2)

Both of these teams are without their top stars. The 49ers won’t have Kittle, Deebo or McCaffrey. While the Rams will be without Kupp and Puka. I’d like to say this will be close but Brock Purdy is 8-0 against the NFC West. The 49ers coach Shanahan is 10-4 against Mcvay. with both teams being depleted I’ll take those odds and take the 49ers.

My pick - 49ers

Lions (1-1) vs Cardinals (1-1)

I see a TON of points in this game. I’m pounding the over no matter what it is. This game isn’t about the stats for me. It’s about what I know about football from watching it for years. The Cardinals have weapons and looked great last week. The Lions lost to a really solid Buccaneers team at home. The Lions are the better of the two teams. In coaching and defense. The Cardinals may have a better offense but not by that much. I’ll take the Lions to get back on track.

My pick - The Lions

Chiefs (2-0) vs Falcons (1-1)

The Chiefs played like shit for the second week in a row and still somehow won. The Falcons won a legit primetime game on the road against the Eagles. I want to take the Falcons so bad it’s not funny but I can’t. It’s a bad matchup and I think the Falcons get blown out at home. The Falcons defense while ranked 7th in the league plays zone 76% of the time. Mahomes will decimate that. The Chiefs defense blitzes more than most and Kirk hates being pressured. Bad matchup. I’ll be rooting for the Falcons but my money is on the Chiefs.

My pick - The Chiefs

Jaguars (0-2) vs Bills (2-0)

I hate to say this but I think it’s simple. The coaching for the Jaguars has betrayed them and they are a bad football team. They are tied with the Panthers in their last 8 games with a 1-7 record. The talent of the team is there and it shows seeing as 5 of those losses were by one score. Bottom line the Jaguars find ways to lose. The Bills on the other hand find ways to win. At home they beat the scrappy Jaguars and go to 3-0.

My pick - The Bills

Commanders (1-1) vs Bengals (0-2)

The Bengals showed up last week and reminded the world of how dangerous they can be nearly defeating the Chiefs. Problem is how can you trust them? Week 1 they lost to a trash Patriots team by not being prepared. I’ve been a Bengals fan my whole life and let me tell you that this game is going to be a DOMINANT Bengals win. Backs against the wall at home they come out swinging. The Commanders will score themselves. They will run the ball well against a depleted bengals defense line. But it won’t be enough to stop the Bengals offense. The Commanders secondary is allowing the 28th most passing yards to receivers. With Tee Higgins back I expect the Bengals to score early and often. This games a route for the Bengals.

My pick - The Bengals

These are the picks! Excited to see how we do. If you want my betting picks make sure to follow @bigmouthsmallwordspodcast on instagram! Good luck yall!